Assembly News

Seventy Nairobi MCAs Launch Impeachment Drive Against Governor Sakaja

10 months ago

Ex-Kogi Governor Bello Presses Lawmakers to Pass All Ododo Bills

Nigeria

Politics

World

Ex-Kogi Governor Bello Presses Lawmakers to Pass All Ododo Bills

10 months ago

California GOP Sues Over Maps, Floats Two-State Split Amid Redistricting Fight

US Legislation

US Judiciary

California

California GOP Sues Over Maps, Floats Two-State Split Amid Redistricting Fight

10 months ago

US Elections

US Legislation

California

California Lawmakers Begin Hearings on Governor’s Redistricting Plan

10 months ago

US Legislation

Regulation

New York

New York Lawmaker Seeks 0.2% Tax on Crypto Trades to Fund Addiction Programs

10 months ago

Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?

Aug 12, 7:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.96%chance

5623463

OptionVotes

YES

1178

851

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

3725

268

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

YES

1132

819

Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?

Aug 29, 11:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.57%chance

13769

OptionVotes

YES

1332

926

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

YES

1157

406

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

12.51%chance

15567

OptionVotes

YES

1431

828

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10485

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

Will Ohio House Bill 249 be signed into law in the 136th General Assembly?

Apr 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.94%chance

5401

OptionVotes

YES

1303

767

When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?

Jan 9, 10:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12218

OptionProbability

Later

2027

2026

2025

2024

Will it be possible to acquire or assemble a Framework laptop with a trackpoint?

Jul 31, 2:54 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM

12.38%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

185

Russia assembles a domestic tribunal by EOY2050?

Aug 30, 6:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

474

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Nov 16, 7:44 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

340

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Prediction markets for Assembly

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Prediction markets for Assembly

Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Will Ohio House Bill 249 be signed into law in the 136th General Assembly?

When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?

Will it be possible to acquire or assemble a Framework laptop with a trackpoint?

Russia assembles a domestic tribunal by EOY2050?

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Latest stories

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