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Seventy Nairobi MCAs Launch Impeachment Drive Against Governor Sakaja

7 months ago

Ex-Kogi Governor Bello Presses Lawmakers to Pass All Ododo Bills

Nigeria

Politics

World

Ex-Kogi Governor Bello Presses Lawmakers to Pass All Ododo Bills

7 months ago

California GOP Sues Over Maps, Floats Two-State Split Amid Redistricting Fight

US Legislation

US Judiciary

California

California GOP Sues Over Maps, Floats Two-State Split Amid Redistricting Fight

7 months ago

US Elections

US Legislation

California

California Lawmakers Begin Hearings on Governor’s Redistricting Plan

7 months ago

US Legislation

Regulation

New York

New York Lawmaker Seeks 0.2% Tax on Crypto Trades to Fund Addiction Programs

7 months ago

Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?

Aug 12, 7:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.04%chance

5623413

OptionVotes

YES

1251

801

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.81%chance

279331

OptionVotes

YES

1399

715

Wil I be able to buy a robot that can assemble Ikea furniture reliably by the end of 2027?

Sep 15, 1:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.35%chance

112415

OptionVotes

YES

294

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

26.52%chance

151661

OptionVotes

YES

1665

601

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

YES

1132

819

Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?

Aug 29, 11:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.57%chance

13769

OptionVotes

YES

1332

926

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

1139

442

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

12.51%chance

15567

OptionVotes

YES

1431

828

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?

Jan 9, 8:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4103

OptionProbability

2028

2030-2034

2027

2029

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2100

2026

Russia assembles a domestic tribunal by EOY2050?

Aug 30, 6:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

474

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Nov 16, 7:44 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Wil I be able to buy a robot that can assemble Ikea furniture reliably by the end of 2027?

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?

Russia assembles a domestic tribunal by EOY2050?

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

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