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Prediction markets for Assembly
Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?
Aug 12, 7:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38%chance
5523316
OptionVotes
1277
783
Will the French President of the Republic dissolve the National Assembly again before the end of 2025 ?
Jul 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
10.09%chance
309580
OptionVotes
2985
335
Will Optimus be used on the Optimus assembly line before the end of 2025?
Nov 23, 6:53 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
4.69%chance
226236
OptionVotes
4509
222
Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?
Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
52.64%chance
361361
OptionVotes
1132
819
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM
42.32%chance
141029
OptionVotes
1168
856
Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?
Aug 29, 11:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.57%chance
13769
OptionVotes
1332
926
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
32.46%chance
14587
OptionVotes
1139
442
After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?
Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
10432
OptionProbability
51
30
9
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?
May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM
15.37%chance
14317
OptionVotes
1181
868
OptionVotes
1048
954
Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?
Nov 16, 7:44 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district
Aug 25, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
37
37
26
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