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Top stories

Tech Founder Ethan Agarwal Enters 2026 California Governor Race

Tech Founder Ethan Agarwal Enters 2026 California Governor Race

Authors

6

3 months ago

Clinton Warns Supreme Court May Overturn Same-Sex Marriage

Clinton Warns Supreme Court May Overturn Same-Sex Marriage

Authors

5

4 months ago

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

Authors

44

3 months ago

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

Axios Lists 11 Tested Tactics for Influencing Trump

Authors

5

4 months ago

US Foreign Policy

White House Request Sees Zelensky Trade Military Garb for Suit at Trump Meeting

Authors

78

4 months ago

Hamas Reply Said to Mirror 98% of Israel-Accepted Whitkoff Plan

Authors

6

4 months ago

Democrats Test Populist Playbook Ahead of 2028 White House Race

Authors

5

4 months ago

Executive Orders

Trump Accelerates Push to Let 401(k)s Invest in Private Equity

Authors

10

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Axios

Nicolás Maduro out this year?

Oct 26, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.84%chance

678023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

33

Who has received USAID funding?

Feb 5, 5:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

133508

OptionProbability

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

CNN

Axios

Wired

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Wikimedia Foundation

The New York Times

Sierra Club

Greenpeace

Black Lives Matter

Hamas

41

38

36

34

32

30

30

28

27

25

23

21

20

20

19

17

13

12

12

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.08%chance

182082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2088

737

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

5

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 28, 6:29 PM

59.73%chance

20779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

168

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

Will musicians and bands unionize before 2030?

Oct 14, 4:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.95%chance

9187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

193

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

48.52%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33.19%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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