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Prediction markets for Basis
Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
15.56%chance
414690
OptionVotes
2329
429
If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?
Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
64.88%chance
161389
OptionVotes
1019
976
At the beginning of 2032, will people in the United States still be using physical coins or cash on a frequent basis?
Feb 10, 12:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
64.38%chance
331234
OptionVotes
1047
874
Roughly what % of workers will use VR headsets on a weekly basis in Jan 2029?
Feb 29, 4:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
101121
OptionProbability
25
20
18
17
6
5
5
4
Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?
Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM
31.16%chance
2500
OptionVotes
1486
673
Will McArthur River 2026 production (100% basis) exceed 16.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)?
Feb 19, 10:45 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM
37.28%chance
4446
OptionVotes
130
77
Will the next US president close the step-up basis tax loophole?
Apr 10, 3:33 AMJan 17, 7:59 AM
21.08%chance
4190
OptionVotes
425
141
Will McArthur River 2029 production (100% basis) exceed 22.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)?
Feb 19, 10:47 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM
36.93%chance
3101
OptionVotes
131
77
In which country will happen a BDBA nuclear accident (beyond design basis accident) next?
Jun 29, 7:27 AMDec 31, 8:14 AM
5100
OptionProbability
49
12
8
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Will McArthur River 2027 production (100% basis) exceed 18.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)?
Feb 19, 10:45 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM
40.95%chance
289
OptionVotes
120
83
Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?
Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM
64.11%chance
472
OptionVotes
134
75
OptionVotes
100
100