Best Yet News

FDA Expands Recall of Walmart and Other Frozen Shrimp Brands Over Radioactive Cesium-137 Contamination in Multiple States

1 year ago

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

YES

155442

22908

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.48%chance

5911988

OptionVotes

YES

2256

220

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

15025

6656

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

10497

2690

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

Jun 15, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.51%chance

181355

OptionVotes

YES

1545

647

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.18%chance

19899

OptionVotes

YES

1264

921

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

13690

OptionVotes

YES

1308

765

Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?

Apr 15, 3:57 AMApr 15, 3:45 AM

66.75%chance

5507

OptionVotes

YES

1106

740

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

1040

971

Suggest me some couch coop games to play with my partner. Bounty to the best games we haven’t played yet.

Mar 5, 11:09 PM

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
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FDA Expands Recall of Walmart and Other Frozen Shrimp Brands Over Radioactive Cesium-137 Contamination in Multiple States
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1 year ago

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Suggest me some couch coop games to play with my partner. Bounty to the best games we haven’t played yet.

Latest stories

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