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Prediction markets for Best Yet
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.41%chance
198384813
OptionVotes
155442
22908
OptionProbability
24
21
13
11
10
8
5
3
3
2
0
Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently
Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
14.48%chance
5911988
OptionVotes
2256
220
Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?
May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.7%chance
298803
OptionVotes
15025
6656
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.13%chance
215978
OptionVotes
10497
2690
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Jun 15, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.51%chance
181355
OptionVotes
1545
647
Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?
Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
321030
OptionProbability
57
43
[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?
Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18.18%chance
19899
OptionVotes
1264
921
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.9%chance
13690
OptionVotes
1308
765
Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?
Apr 15, 3:57 AMApr 15, 3:45 AM
66.75%chance
5507
OptionVotes
1106
740
OptionVotes
1040
971