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FDA Expands Recall of Walmart and Other Frozen Shrimp Brands Over Radioactive Cesium-137 Contamination in Multiple States

5 months ago

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

112159

17112

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

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14.4%chance

5811987

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YES

2262

219

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

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YES

9916

2845

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

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YES

987

811

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

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23.97%chance

111852

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YES

1781

562

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

May 8, 5:13 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

49.76%chance

321739

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YES

1289

332

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

Jun 15, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.29%chance

161093

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YES

1325

755

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

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32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

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18.25%chance

18894

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YES

1259

922

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

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YES

1288

777

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

1040

971

Suggest me some couch coop games to play with my partner. Bounty to the best games we haven’t played yet.

Mar 5, 11:09 PM

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
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FDA Expands Recall of Walmart and Other Frozen Shrimp Brands Over Radioactive Cesium-137 Contamination in Multiple States
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5 months ago

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Suggest me some couch coop games to play with my partner. Bounty to the best games we haven’t played yet.

Latest stories

Join our channels

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