OptionProbability
January 20, 2029 (Whole term)
January 20, 2026 (First year)
January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)
February 20, 2025 (First month)
April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)
71
16
0
Significant protests are reported in February and March
The US launches airstrikes
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
Iran strikes US bases
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
US ground troops enter Iran
75
61
52
51
50
48
25
23
11
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
629
1166
541
192
Get the latest stories live on any device.
Top Stories
