OptionProbability
We don't find out by end of 2026
Other
Pete Hegseth (SecDef)
Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)
Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)
JD Vance (VP)
Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)
Barron Trump
Marco Rubio (Sec State)
John Ratcliffe (CIA)
Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)
Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)
Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)
90
6
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Gamergate was right
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
John McAfee didn't kill himself
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Dead Internet theory
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Harold Holt murdered
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
QR codes are satanic
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
88
87
84
82
80
78
76
74
74
71
70
67
63
59
55
53
52
52
50
45
43
42
42
40
38
37
37
36
35
35
34
34
33
33
33
32
31
30
30
30
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)
CIA
Other US government agency or official
Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)
Mafia
Other
Cuban government
KGB / Soviets
LBJ
US military
FBI
Other US leftwing group
Other US rightwing group
US company
Foreign company
Mossad / Israeli government
Other foreign government
Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people
77
15
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 31, 2026
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump remains President of USA
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
123
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A country declares war on Israel
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Iran undergoes a regime change
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
A country declares war on United States
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Any country leaves NATO
Successful military coup in Venezuela
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
China invades Taiwan
United States formally declares war on Iran
Sudanese Civil War ends
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
China formally declares war on another country
Egypt formally declares war on another country
Iran loses territory
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Israel loses territory
Iranian troops enter Israel
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
USA leaves NATO
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States formally declares war on another country
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Humans will extinct
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
94
93
92
87
77
75
74
71
67
67
61
59
58
55
54
53
53
52
52
52
51
49
48
48
48
47
47
45
45
45
45
45
44
44
43
43
42
42
42
41
39
39
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
34
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
8
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
3
3
2
1
0
OptionProbability
People on the boat were US military or CIA (or similar) on an official mission
Major escalation before EOD Feb 26. eg >4 more new deaths
21
0
OptionProbability
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
100
100
100
79
76
68
68
68
66
66
66
57
56
56
51
49
48
47
46
42
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
36
35
35
34
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
27
24
OptionProbability
criminal activity
CIA bypassing warrants and oversight; creating massive taxpayer and social security database; via Palantir
Something to do with Donald Trump specifically
Something to do with Tulsi Gabbard
A (alleged) cover up of some kind
Something to do with Jeffrey Epstein
46
44
34
25
24
14
OptionProbability
no
DOC
DHS
Other
FDA
CDC
DOE
NSA
ICE
DEA
SEC
CIA
FBI
DOD
FCC
DOJ
DOT
29
12
10
8
7
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
175
57
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1401
947
OptionVotes
YES
NO
163
83
OptionProbability
NO
YES
121
100



