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Prediction markets for Control
Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?
Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.63%chance
6476090
OptionVotes
45370
2204
Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?
Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM
9.79%chance
4138781
OptionVotes
30349
3295
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19.65%chance
9122191
OptionVotes
14513
8421
Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.07%chance
159435
OptionVotes
10413
1804
FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?
Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24%chance
68682
OptionVotes
17795
5620
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.19%chance
327878
OptionVotes
8632
3470
Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?
Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM
61.66%chance
183552
OptionVotes
11364
9035
Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2028 US elections?
Nov 5, 11:13 PMNov 8, 12:00 PM
53465
OptionProbability
62
9
8
8
6
3
2
1
Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2030 US elections?
Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 6, 12:00 PM
22370
OptionProbability
48
19
13
8
4
3
2
2
Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2032 US elections?
Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 3, 12:00 PM
1800
OptionProbability
34
24
9
8
7
6
6
6
Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2034 US elections?
Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 8, 12:00 PM
00
OptionProbability
22
22
14
14
8
8
7
7
Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2036 US elections?
Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 5, 12:00 PM
00
OptionProbability
28
28
7
7
7
7
7
7