Converse News
Prediction markets for Converse
Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?
Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
81.29%chance
606189
OptionVotes
1860
594
Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040
Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
32.77%chance
342620
OptionVotes
1042
789
Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)
Feb 24, 7:17 AMJun 30, 12:01 PM
3.42%chance
172340
OptionVotes
2675
858
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
11.88%chance
232149
OptionVotes
2724
367
Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?
Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM
46.76%chance
202135
OptionVotes
10868
9165
OptionVotes
1402
904
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM
74.79%chance
26735
OptionVotes
998
935
Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?
Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
27.55%chance
23653
OptionVotes
1033
978
will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028
May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.1%chance
7633
OptionVotes
1022
978
Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?
Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.98%chance
11284
OptionVotes
1086
947
Will Grok or DeepSeek UIs support printing the conversation with browser-standard mechanism by EOY2025?
Jun 13, 2:22 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
23.29%chance
6188
OptionVotes
182
55
By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?
Jan 16, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
16%chance
5148
OptionVotes
179
81