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Top stories

Nike Cuts 1% of Corporate Staff as CEO Hill Refocuses Business

Nike Cuts 1% of Corporate Staff as CEO Hill Refocuses Business

Authors

12

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Converse

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

666670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

874

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.32%chance

352627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

775

Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)

Feb 24, 7:17 AMJun 30, 12:01 PM

3.26%chance

182491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2795

854

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Will Tower ever make his infamous conversion posts?

Dec 21, 2:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.46%chance

181748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

904

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

61519

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

2Q 2025

4Q 2024

3Q 2023

1Q 2024

2Q 2024

3Q 2024

34

25

22

15

1

1

1

1

Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?

Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

24.38%chance

261003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

932

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Nov 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8303

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2035

2030

35

26

21

17

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Oregon
Business
United States
Nike Cuts 1% of Corporate Staff as CEO Hill Refocuses Business
Authors
12
8 months ago

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