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Prediction markets for DEA
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
15%chance
10248838
OptionVotes
1879
1284
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.6%chance
10842720
OptionVotes
11866
8858
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?
Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.7%chance
14336408
OptionVotes
5405
1263
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
51.06%chance
10927408
OptionVotes
2056
1924
OptionProbability
34
28
19
11
8
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8616676
OptionProbability
16
16
15
14
11
10
7
6
4
1
1
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.14%chance
226652
OptionVotes
12736
7852
Will Snoop Dogg live to see marijuana completely descheduled federally by the DEA in the USA?
Mar 25, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
72.35%chance
622443
OptionVotes
1505
873
Will any major three letter USA federal agency stop operating before 2045, if yes, which one first?
Aug 27, 7:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19885
OptionProbability
29
12
10
8
7
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will any SSRIs be DEA-scheduled before Trump leaves office?
Feb 16, 8:47 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
5.39%chance
14680
OptionVotes
419
24
What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?
Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.96%chance
10588
OptionVotes
372
367
Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama?
Nov 5, 11:17 PMMay 17, 12:00 PM
00
OptionProbability
85
13
2
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