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Prediction markets for Defense Ministry
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
19%chance
589323581
OptionVotes
10757
5615
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.27%chance
217018
OptionVotes
13559
7386
Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?
May 2, 2:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.13%chance
254589
OptionVotes
2353
54
China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.2%chance
323242
OptionVotes
3345
299
OptionVotes
575
43
Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by June 30, 2026?
Oct 12, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
32.38%chance
24549
OptionVotes
145
69
Will China officially acknowledge its new sixth-gen tailless stealth fighter prototypes (J-36 / J-50) before 2027
Mar 7, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.88%chance
5180
OptionVotes
362
212
Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM
65.93%chance
12152
OptionVotes
139
72
Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
36.55%chance
9152
OptionVotes
132
76
Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?
Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.65%chance
7135
OptionVotes
159
63
When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?
Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
43.42%chance
590
OptionVotes
1018
984
Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?
Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
215
OptionProbability
50
50
50
28
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