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Prediction markets for EA
Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?
Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.47%chance
4361271
OptionVotes
11722
4317
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
Nov 14, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
76.69%chance
879641
OptionVotes
1775
1245
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.48%chance
533590
OptionVotes
2585
438
Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?
Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
25%chance
312946
OptionVotes
3295
2155
Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?
Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM
86.43%chance
212078
OptionVotes
1953
86
Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?
Oct 12, 8:49 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM
33.1%chance
221998
OptionVotes
1003
918
EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.
Mar 1, 6:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.67%chance
341131
OptionVotes
1226
793
Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?
Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM
39.6%chance
19799
OptionVotes
1192
506
Will there be a head of state and/or government of a G20 country with a background in Effective Altrusim (EA) by 2035?
Dec 11, 12:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
30.34%chance
16792
OptionVotes
992
971
OptionVotes
265
38
OptionVotes
1081
956
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
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