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Prediction markets for Electronic Arts
CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
Nov 19, 4:36 PMNov 27, 7:59 AM
4816382
OptionProbability
66
27
26
22
20
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
12
3
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
90
52
50
29
23
15
15
14
14
14
14
9
9
9
8
7
6
5
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028
Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
62.03%chance
545201
OptionVotes
1451
563
OptionProbability
100
72
71
70
55
55
51
50
50
50
45
41
41
41
40
38
37
34
34
34
33
30
30
29
28
27
27
27
26
25
24
24
24
23
18
12
11
10
10
9
7
5
3
Which gaming companies will layoff 20%+ of their workforce by end 2026?
Feb 28, 9:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
273371
OptionProbability
100
81
75
73
72
72
55
54
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
40
38
35
35
32
31
31
30
30
30
27
27
27
26
24
24
21
20
18
13
9
9
7
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030
Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
73.79%chance
321826
OptionVotes
1595
604
OptionProbability
79
73
67
65
65
59
50
50
45
45
35
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)
Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM
73.06%chance
14725
OptionProbability
1645
852
Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027?
Jun 14, 8:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
67%chance
450
OptionVotes
93
54
OptionProbability
70
70
Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?
Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
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