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Prediction markets for Enhance
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
36.9%chance
241876
OptionVotes
4120
3063
Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?
Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.88%chance
241370
OptionVotes
1779
1135
OptionProbability
29
28
21
13
10
Will enhanced prosthetics be developed that lead to people voluntarily 'upgrading' their natural limbs by EOY 2040?🦾🦿
Jan 16, 11:59 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
36.34%chance
25641
OptionVotes
997
986
Will enhanced prosthetics be developed that lead to people voluntarily 'upgrading' their natural limbs by EOY 2050?🦾🦿
Jan 22, 6:59 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
68.01%chance
18451
OptionVotes
1153
909
OptionVotes
189
133
Will the first human to achieve a FIDE chess rating of 3000 be genetically enhanced?
Jun 17, 7:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
56.64%chance
12291
OptionVotes
252
170
OptionVotes
1006
891
Will someone break the Usain Bolt World Record in the 100 Meter Dash at Enhanced Games before 2032?
Jun 5, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.98%chance
4222
OptionVotes
120
83
Will enhanced mineral weathering intentionally sequester 100gt CO2eq by 2050
Mar 1, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.52%chance
5215
OptionVotes
758
527
By 2030, can we convert at least 10% of an AI's weights to C code, enhancing interpretability?
Feb 7, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
6103
OptionVotes
148
115
Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?
Feb 28, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.75%chance
110
OptionVotes
130
111
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