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Top stories

Macron, Merz Lead European Condemnation of Kyiv Strikes That Kill 14 Civilians

Macron, Merz Lead European Condemnation of Kyiv Strikes That Kill 14 Civilians

Authors

21

11 months ago

EU Moves to Scrap Tariffs on US Industrial Goods, Aiming to Unlock Lower Auto Duties

EU Moves to Scrap Tariffs on US Industrial Goods, Aiming to Unlock Lower Auto Duties

Authors

55

11 months ago

India to Lift Russian Oil Imports Despite New 50% U.S. Tariffs

India to Lift Russian Oil Imports Despite New 50% U.S. Tariffs

Authors

16

11 months ago

EU Weighs Expanding Ukraine Training Mission, Leaves Troop Deployments to Members

Authors

5

11 months ago

Von der Leyen Starts Baltic Tour, Calls Putin ‘Predator’ Over Hybrid Threats

Authors

4

11 months ago

EU Plans New Sanctions on Russia, to Use €200 Billion Frozen Assets and €150 Billion Rearmament Fund; Russia Warns of Countermeasures

Authors

6

11 months ago

EU’s Kallas Says Energy Sanctions Would Hit Russia Hardest

Authors

3

11 months ago

France, EU End EDF Dam Dispute With New Authorization Regime

Authors

3

11 months ago

Prediction markets for EU

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

279659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5151

4526

[ACX 2026] How many of the negotiating chapters required to join the EU will Montenegro have closed at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:55 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

158470

OptionProbability

24 - 27

20 - 23

28 - 33

16 - 19

13 - 15

0 - 12

41

36

18

3

2

1

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.33%chance

298124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8032

4190

Will the iPhone be sold in the EU with a user-replaceable battery by 2027?

Jun 16, 7:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.61%chance

717359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

143

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.05%chance

52982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3409

1209

Will any new countries join the EU before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.05%chance

302911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1790

239

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

1422

China's nominal GDP exceeds EU's in 2027?

Apr 20, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.36%chance

12840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have gotten a western education [in US or Europe (EU)]?

Oct 25, 7:40 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

31.41%chance

16398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

930

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.87%chance

4175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

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