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Prediction markets for Foreign Office

How many non-immigrant visas will the U.S. Issue in FY 2025

Mar 18, 2:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16000

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

193764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

711

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

7.17%chance

213291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3597

278

Will there be another major US intelligence incident in this Trump term? (Post-Atlantic)

Mar 25, 1:35 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

89.28%chance

412436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

289

35

Will Mike Waltz be confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations?

May 6, 8:16 PMDec 31, 9:14 PM

86.04%chance

212273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2482

403

If Trump is elected president, will he approve a new foreign aid package to Ukraine while he is in office?

Mar 9, 9:38 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

75.42%chance

282200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1612

690

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

181357

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a month, less than a year

More than a week, less than a month

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

33

31

18

10

4

4

Will The UK recognize Palestine by EOY2025?

Apr 29, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.76%chance

191012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

25

[Metaculus] Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:30 PMFeb 2, 12:00 PM

39.8%chance

539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

117

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