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Top stories

UK Summons Israeli Ambassador Over Controversial West Bank Settlement Plan

UK Summons Israeli Ambassador Over Controversial West Bank Settlement Plan

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Foreign Office

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

304131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

If Trump is elected president, will he approve a new foreign aid package to Ukraine while he is in office?

Mar 9, 9:38 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

62.91%chance

322780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

891

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

201408

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a week, less than a month

More than a month, less than a year

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

36

24

19

14

3

3

Who will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?

Jun 22, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91050

OptionProbability

Emmanuel Macron

Giorgia Meloni

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

JD Vance

Anthony Albanese

Christopher Luxon

Benjamin Netanyahu

Vladimir Putin

85

78

59

54

50

46

22

20

7

Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?

Jun 13, 1:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.99%chance

4645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

How many interventions will Trump start in his second term?

Jan 16, 12:49 AMJan 16, 8:59 PM

2548

OptionProbability

20 - 29

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

30 - 39

0 - 4

40 - 50

22

16

16

16

11

10

7

Trump family members knighted by 2040?

Oct 27, 11:16 PMJan 1, 11:23 PM

10.44%chance

12468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Will Graham Platner be the next fetterman?

Mar 10, 8:36 PMDec 30, 7:32 PM

2.38%chance

9420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

191

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Britain
Israel
World
UK Summons Israeli Ambassador Over Controversial West Bank Settlement Plan
Authors
5
10 months ago

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