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Prediction markets for Futu
OptionProbability
38
25
21
11
5
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
OptionProbability
45
18
16
12
9
Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?
Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM
48.2%chance
331946
OptionVotes
1207
669
Is the US government the mystery oil futures seller?
Mar 13, 9:58 PMDec 31, 10:57 PM
16.08%chance
51834
OptionVotes
2285
438
Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI
Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM
49%chance
151426
OptionVotes
1024
982
Will Trump effectively control policy of a future, 2029-2033 GoP president?
Aug 26, 6:19 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
28.67%chance
71175
OptionVotes
1577
634
What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?
Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
26.04%chance
12728
OptionProbability
1258
854
Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?
Dec 28, 9:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
46.06%chance
17535
OptionVotes
1052
943
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.73%chance
18430
OptionVotes
1147
1002
Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?
May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
26.93%chance
12247
OptionVotes
1063
964
Will the future Real Madrid soccer player Endrick Sousa achieve The Best FIFA Men's Player award before his 30s?
Feb 3, 3:26 AMJun 22, 2:59 AM
27.34%chance
10243
OptionVotes
1063
965
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