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Prediction markets for Game Science
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.66%chance
834517250
OptionVotes
59065
10415
Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently
Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
14.4%chance
5811987
OptionVotes
2262
219
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
79.08%chance
382747
OptionVotes
1720
680
Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?
Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
8.11%chance
7612
OptionVotes
473
44
OptionVotes
1006
891
OptionProbability
61
44
32
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82
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