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Gap Relaunches Low-Rise Denim for First Time in 16 Years with Katseye in Fall 2025 Better in Denim Campaign Featuring Kelis

4 months ago

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3 months ago

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.56%chance

9183898

OptionVotes

YES

1325

333

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

282692

OptionVotes

YES

1016

492

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.5%chance

101173

OptionVotes

YES

525

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

1277

916

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.8%chance

10761

OptionVotes

YES

231

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

1249

958

Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?

Dec 20, 8:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.31%chance

9599

OptionProbability

YES

873

225

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

YES

1156

931

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Apr 29, 3:45 PMMay 7, 3:59 AM

12332

OptionProbability

Increase

Decrease

Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?

Jul 16, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:15 PM

570

OptionProbability

Above 10

0 - 1

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

9 - 10

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035

Mar 14, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.77%chance

346

OptionVotes

YES

136

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

51%chance

OptionVotes

YES

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Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025?

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

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Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?