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Gap Relaunches Low-Rise Denim for First Time in 16 Years with Katseye in Fall 2025 Better in Denim Campaign Featuring Kelis

9 months ago

Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

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Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

9 months ago

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45%chance

9485003

OptionVotes

YES

1227

435

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

282692

OptionVotes

YES

1016

492

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

1266

918

Will i get a gap year offer at Hack Club

Mar 20, 9:43 AMJul 15, 9:41 AM

66.33%chance

152413

OptionVotes

YES

1534

220

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

141235

OptionVotes

YES

339

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

1249

958

Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?

Dec 20, 8:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.31%chance

9599

OptionProbability

YES

873

225

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

13308

OptionVotes

YES

339

Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?

Jul 16, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:15 PM

570

OptionProbability

Above 10

0 - 1

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

9 - 10

Benchmark Gap #7: Once 10% of the medical Grand Challenges are "solved", how many months will it be before AI are in common use in hospitals for analyzing medical images with minimal human oversight?

Feb 8, 10:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.62%chance

225

OptionProbability

YES

295

276

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

51%chance

OptionVotes

YES

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Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Will i get a gap year offer at Hack Club

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?

Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?

Benchmark Gap #7: Once 10% of the medical Grand Challenges are "solved", how many months will it be before AI are in common use in hospitals for analyzing medical images with minimal human oversight?

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

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Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?