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Gap Relaunches Low-Rise Denim for First Time in 16 Years with Katseye in Fall 2025 Better in Denim Campaign Featuring Kelis

10 months ago

Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

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Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

10 months ago

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57%chance

9585361

OptionVotes

YES

1368

299

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

282692

OptionVotes

YES

1016

492

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

1266

918

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Aug 5, 9:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.72%chance

81095

OptionVotes

YES

406

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?

Aug 28, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66%chance

26857

OptionVotes

YES

337

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

1249

958

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

Jul 16, 7:36 AMDec 31, 8:30 AM

13572

OptionProbability

0 - 11

12 - 23

24 - 35

36 - 47

48 - 59

60 - 71

72 - 83

84 - 95

96 - 107

108 - 119

120+

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?

May 5, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.67%chance

10269

OptionVotes

YES

347

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030

Mar 14, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.74%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

211

Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap be proven?

Sep 8, 9:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

62.47%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

174

114

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

51%chance

OptionVotes

YES

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Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030

Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap be proven?

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

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Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?