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Gap Relaunches Low-Rise Denim for First Time in 16 Years with Katseye in Fall 2025 Better in Denim Campaign Featuring Kelis

1 year ago

Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

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Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

1 year ago

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57%chance

9585361

OptionVotes

YES

1368

299

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23%chance

292917

OptionVotes

YES

1041

397

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

1266

918

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.33%chance

161535

OptionVotes

YES

539

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

1249

958

Will I be enrolled at Stanford for Fall 2027? (aka, will I return to school after my planned gap year)

Sep 7, 3:31 AMSep 15, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

10580

OptionVotes

YES

1308

765

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.22%chance

18441

OptionVotes

YES

314

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Apr 29, 3:45 PMMay 7, 3:59 AM

12382

OptionProbability

Increase

Decrease

Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?

Jul 16, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:15 PM

570

OptionProbability

Above 10

0 - 1

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

9 - 10

Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap be proven?

Sep 8, 9:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

62.47%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

174

114

How will Mayor Mamdani fill the 2026 Budget Gap?

Feb 21, 11:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

217

OptionProbability

Neither (either the budget is cut or Mamdani finds an alternative revenue source)

Increase Income Taxes on the wealthy/Increase the Corporate Tax

Increase Property Taxes

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Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
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Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique
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1 year ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Music
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Gap Relaunches Low-Rise Denim for First Time in 16 Years with Katseye in Fall 2025 Better in Denim Campaign Featuring Kelis
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Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will I be enrolled at Stanford for Fall 2027? (aka, will I return to school after my planned gap year)

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?

Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap be proven?

How will Mayor Mamdani fill the 2026 Budget Gap?

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Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?