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Prediction markets for Gap
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
50.91%chance
9183970
OptionVotes
1294
362
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?
Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19.03%chance
282692
OptionVotes
1016
492
Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?
Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM
13.48%chance
172458
OptionVotes
1266
918
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
78%chance
16943
OptionVotes
1382
859
Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?
Aug 28, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
65.69%chance
24831
OptionVotes
335
100
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?
Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
8.61%chance
11715
OptionProbability
1249
958
OptionVotes
1052
837
OptionVotes
178
79
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
May 4, 7:06 PMMay 4, 7:05 PM
41.85%chance
5190
OptionVotes
93
86
AI Companion Gender Gap: Men vs Women Romantic Preference by 2030
Jul 20, 5:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
46.31%chance
10133
OptionVotes
108
93
OptionVotes
174
114
Benchmark Gap #7: Once 10% of the medical Grand Challenges are "solved", how many months will it be before AI are in common use in hospitals for analyzing medical images with minimal human oversight?
Feb 8, 10:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26.62%chance
225
OptionProbability
295
276
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