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1 year ago

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

China

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a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

11 months ago

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

YES

2596

385

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

6060

4388

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

21.13%chance

256169

OptionVotes

YES

1935

518

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

YES

3341

301

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112783

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

211899

OptionVotes

YES

1227

818

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

Nov 27, 6:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

191150

OptionProbability

China

UAE

East/South-East Asia excl. China

Israel

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

YES

178

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6204

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

>=2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

101

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Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

AI Singularity (props)

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

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