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Prediction markets for Google Labs
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
93.97%chance
4911431
OptionVotes
3948
253
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
33.67%chance
1388307
OptionVotes
2986
2139
Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?
Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.47%chance
605883
OptionVotes
1030
971
Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)
Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
82.44%chance
443737
OptionVotes
2178
414
Will SNL make a sketch involving any big AI lab before the end of 2025?
Feb 7, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
60.43%chance
151833
OptionVotes
1236
809
Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?
Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
271096
OptionProbability
27
20
Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?
Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.99%chance
15845
OptionVotes
1105
905
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.15%chance
15582
OptionVotes
226
110
Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?
Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
86.02%chance
13293
OptionVotes
248
40
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
13.89%chance
9272
OptionVotes
362
74
Will the Gulf of Mexico/America label change on Google Maps by the end of 2025?
Feb 18, 5:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
27.23%chance
7186
OptionVotes
163
61
[Carlini questions] At least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind will be functionally dead
Mar 24, 2:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4147
OptionProbability
34
34
26
17
5
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