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Prediction markets for Great American
OptionVotes
1906
724
Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026?
Jul 8, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.83%chance
82548
OptionVotes
3028
330
Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?
Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
41.58%chance
462286
OptionVotes
1069
933
OptionVotes
1015
943
OptionVotes
221
45
Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)
Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.79%chance
18555
OptionVotes
304
33
Will there be a major new AI regulation bill signed in the U.S. before September 30, 2026?
Aug 4, 3:15 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM
10.05%chance
9221
OptionVotes
299
33
Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?
Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.34%chance
635
OptionVotes
122
82
[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?
Dec 29, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
211
OptionProbability
45
28
28
Will @AidanFitzzz finally write his great american novel by EOY2031
Jun 5, 8:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.25%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91