IS News

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

4 months ago

Mali

War

Politics

JNIM and IS-Sahel Militants Seize VDP Positions, Kill Soldiers in Burkina Faso and Mali Amid UK Travel Warning

4 months ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Austria

Germany

Crime

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

3 months ago

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

YES

2722

2606

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

10838

9495

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

43.23%chance

507233863

OptionVotes

YES

8084

4771

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.02%chance

38205065

OptionVotes

YES

236954

20579

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.54%chance

23797440

OptionVotes

YES

1640

605

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.47%chance

21149369

OptionVotes

YES

2614

1027

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

44.86%chance

7633107

OptionVotes

YES

1200

707

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.82%chance

5017879

OptionVotes

YES

44261

36358

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.19%chance

7814254

OptionProbability

YES

1118

858

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

10337

9667

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

10480

9542

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

11755

8505

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Aug 26, 2025
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Aug 19, 2025
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Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Latest stories

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