IS News

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

10 months ago

Mali

War

Politics

JNIM and IS-Sahel Militants Seize VDP Positions, Kill Soldiers in Burkina Faso and Mali Amid UK Travel Warning

10 months ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Austria

Germany

Crime

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

10 months ago

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.04%chance

323660136

OptionVotes

YES

2856

2146

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

18.96%chance

589323531

OptionVotes

YES

10777

5610

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

19.4%chance

155197168

OptionVotes

YES

203841

49058

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

52.56%chance

7761833

OptionVotes

YES

53508

47064

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.48%chance

22150870

OptionVotes

YES

2505

1157

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

35.86%chance

8033375

OptionVotes

YES

1405

569

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

15703

6520

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.44%chance

7915381

OptionProbability

YES

1133

897

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

52.56%chance

2712373

OptionVotes

YES

10434

9590

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

659608

OptionVotes

YES

11983

8345

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

10346

9625

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

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Aug 26, 2025
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Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot
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Aug 19, 2025
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Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

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