IS News

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

1 year ago

Mali

War

Politics

JNIM and IS-Sahel Militants Seize VDP Positions, Kill Soldiers in Burkina Faso and Mali Amid UK Travel Warning

1 year ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Austria

Germany

Crime

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

1 year ago

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

22.23%chance

183790573

OptionVotes

YES

187048

53462

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.62%chance

328673462

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2416

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.8%chance

22150925

OptionVotes

YES

2550

1100

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

33.97%chance

8033425

OptionVotes

YES

1455

542

Ethan Klein's affair is a cover for something worse.

Oct 26, 2:54 PMNov 2, 2:50 PM

5.35%chance

932445

OptionVotes

YES

42067

2377

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

75.82%chance

2919559

OptionVotes

YES

17634

5729

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

4615921

OptionVotes

YES

15753

6501

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.02%chance

7915392

OptionProbability

YES

1122

904

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

22.11%chance

910947

OptionVotes

YES

18772

5327

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

22.08%chance

129959

OptionVotes

YES

18787

5319

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

10346

9625

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IS News

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Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Ethan Klein's affair is a cover for something worse.

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Latest stories

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