IS News
Top stories
Prediction markets for IS
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73%chance
294628706
OptionVotes
2722
2606
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.1%chance
194280263
OptionVotes
10838
9495
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
43.23%chance
507233863
OptionVotes
8084
4771
State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025
Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.02%chance
38205065
OptionVotes
236954
20579
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
28.54%chance
23797440
OptionVotes
1640
605
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
52.47%chance
21149369
OptionVotes
2614
1027
OptionVotes
1200
707
🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence
Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM
45.82%chance
5017879
OptionVotes
44261
36358
OptionProbability
1118
858
OptionVotes
10337
9667
US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
47.66%chance
52539
OptionVotes
10480
9542
Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029
Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
42%chance
62029
OptionVotes
11755
8505
Latest stories
Latest stories