IS News

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

6 months ago

Mali

War

Politics

JNIM and IS-Sahel Militants Seize VDP Positions, Kill Soldiers in Burkina Faso and Mali Amid UK Travel Warning

6 months ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Austria

Germany

Crime

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

5 months ago

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.55%chance

301639715

OptionVotes

YES

2659

2584

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

31.33%chance

526245516

OptionVotes

YES

6901

6797

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

21850691

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1249

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

44.86%chance

7633107

OptionVotes

YES

1200

707

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

46.05%chance

5520863

OptionVotes

YES

52857

45934

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.44%chance

7915381

OptionProbability

YES

1133

897

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.82%chance

2511131

OptionVotes

YES

10330

9674

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.29%chance

206464

OptionVotes

YES

12015

8196

Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?

Oct 1, 5:40 PMApr 8, 5:24 PM

34.85%chance

246277

OptionVotes

YES

13672

7314

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.83%chance

95358

OptionVotes

YES

14984

6671

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

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Aug 26, 2025
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Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot
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Aug 19, 2025
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Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Latest stories

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