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Prediction markets for Labor

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.27%chance

8012558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3341

21

Will >50% of human physical labor be replaced by robots before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21%chance

515150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

839

Labor wins the 2025 Tasmanian state election?

Jul 15, 3:13 AMAug 30, 1:59 PM

33.32%chance

194259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

707

Will the UK's AI Foundation Models Taskforce survive the Labor party for a year?

Sep 18, 3:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.76%chance

283083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1982

791

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.41%chance

673036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1458

1072

Bureau of Labor Statistics public reports manipulated for political purposes by end of 2025

Feb 5, 2:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.41%chance

182175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Will Twitter lose more than 100 million dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?

Mar 9, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.82%chance

362019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

755

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

Will labor’s share of income decline in 2025?

Jun 3, 8:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

64.23%chance

12619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1349

757

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

62.57%chance

3409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

773

Will the US Civilian labor force participation rate in January 2026 be above that in January 2022?

Aug 8, 11:48 PMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

24.23%chance

11159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

958

When will a humanoid robot first be used as farm labor?

Nov 11, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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