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Top stories

Rwanda Takes First U.S. Deportees Under Trump Immigration Deal

US Foreign Policy

Rwanda Takes First U.S. Deportees Under Trump Immigration Deal

Authors

16

1 year ago

Labour Grandees Clash Over ECHR Exit as Asylum Hotel Battle Escalates

Labour Grandees Clash Over ECHR Exit as Asylum Hotel Battle Escalates

Authors

13

1 year ago

UK Court Lets 138 Asylum Seekers Remain at Epping Hotel

UK Court Lets 138 Asylum Seekers Remain at Epping Hotel

Authors

6

1 year ago

Starmer Removes Top Aide Nin Pandit as No. 10 Shake-Up Widens

Authors

5

1 year ago

UK Power Bills Climb Again as Surging Costs Jeopardise Net-Zero Goal

Authors

15

1 year ago

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Authors

7

1 year ago

Elon Musk Endorses Advance UK, Dismisses Farage as “Weak Sauce”

Authors

4

1 year ago

UK Pubs and Restaurants Lose Nearly 90,000 Jobs Since Labour’s October Budget Including National Insurance and Minimum Wage Hikes

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Labour

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

0.23%chance

4952947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20897

48

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

0.74%chance

9431429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11612

86

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

156353

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

29

6

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

26.34%chance

255488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

607

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?

Feb 13, 5:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

55%chance

341829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1255

720

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.99%chance

161715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

784

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.89%chance

91560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

560

Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?

Jul 4, 11:25 PMJul 5, 8:59 PM

30.59%chance

13831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Will Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?

Jun 19, 8:41 PMAug 15, 11:59 PM

74.78%chance

8580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

849

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

66.37%chance

8523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1405

712

IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?

May 18, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7403

OptionProbability

Labour LOSES next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, using FPTP)

Labour WINS next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, under FPTP)

Andy Burnham does not lead Labour into the next General Election

Labour loses next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, but NOT using FPTP)

Labour wins next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, but NOT using FPTP)

40

28

17

9

6

Will "Cheap Labour Everywhere " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 18, 3:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.57%chance

4207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

970

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
UK Court Lets 138 Asylum Seekers Remain at Epping Hotel
Authors
6
1 year ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Rwanda
US Foreign Policy
Politics
Rwanda Takes First U.S. Deportees Under Trump Immigration Deal
Authors
16
1 year ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Labour Grandees Clash Over ECHR Exit as Asylum Hotel Battle Escalates
Authors
13
1 year ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Energy
Sustainability
UK Power Bills Climb Again as Surging Costs Jeopardise Net-Zero Goal
Authors
15
1 year ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Starmer Removes Top Aide Nin Pandit as No. 10 Shake-Up Widens
Authors
5
1 year ago
Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Britain
Argentina
Politics
Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey
Authors
7
1 year ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Elon Musk Endorses Advance UK, Dismisses Farage as “Weak Sauce”
Authors
4
1 year ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Britain
Economics
Business
UK Pubs and Restaurants Lose Nearly 90,000 Jobs Since Labour’s October Budget Including National Insurance and Minimum Wage Hikes
Authors
11
1 year ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Britain
US Legislation
US Domestic Policy
Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer Back Detention, Deportation as UK Faces Rising Illegal Boat Arrivals; US Advances Expedited Removal Act
Authors
9
1 year ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Britain
Politics
Culture
Lucy Connolly Released After Nine Months of 31-Month Sentence, Claims Political Prisoner Under Keir Starmer Over Racist Tweet
Authors
18
1 year ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Britain
Politics
Culture
‘Operation Raise the Colours’ Sparks Row Over St George’s Cross Displays
Authors
10
1 year ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch
Authors
7
1 year ago
Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
UK Asylum Claims Reach Record 111,000 in Year to June
Authors
8
1 year ago
Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Canada
Business
World
Air Canada Ends Four-Day Cabin-Crew Strike With Tentative Pay Deal
Authors
69
1 year ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Britain
Economics
Politics
Kinnock Presses Wealth Tax to Pay for End of Two-Child Benefit Cap
Authors
4
1 year ago
Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
Kenya
Politics
World
President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy
Authors
3
1 year ago

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