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Top stories

Rwanda Takes First U.S. Deportees Under Trump Immigration Deal

US Foreign Policy

Rwanda Takes First U.S. Deportees Under Trump Immigration Deal

Authors

16

3 months ago

Labour Grandees Clash Over ECHR Exit as Asylum Hotel Battle Escalates

Labour Grandees Clash Over ECHR Exit as Asylum Hotel Battle Escalates

Authors

13

3 months ago

UK Court Lets 138 Asylum Seekers Remain at Epping Hotel

UK Court Lets 138 Asylum Seekers Remain at Epping Hotel

Authors

6

3 months ago

Starmer Removes Top Aide Nin Pandit as No. 10 Shake-Up Widens

Authors

5

3 months ago

UK Power Bills Climb Again as Surging Costs Jeopardise Net-Zero Goal

Authors

15

3 months ago

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Authors

7

3 months ago

Elon Musk Endorses Advance UK, Dismisses Farage as “Weak Sauce”

Authors

4

3 months ago

UK Pubs and Restaurants Lose Nearly 90,000 Jobs Since Labour’s October Budget Including National Insurance and Minimum Wage Hikes

Authors

11

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Labour

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.36%chance

3637759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

823

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

5514278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?

Jun 3, 10:10 AMJun 3, 10:04 AM

2410177

OptionProbability

0 defections

1 defection

2-5 defections

6-10 defections

11+ defections

Polanski does not become Green Party leader.

44

31

22

2

1

0

Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?

May 17, 5:42 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

47.31%chance

219695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

723

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

45.12%chance

204892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?

Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM

72.03%chance

212874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1705

426

Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026?

Nov 4, 8:57 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

7.01%chance

102777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3641

275

Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 10:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.13%chance

282581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3462

765

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.46%chance

151665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

792

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?

Feb 13, 5:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.89%chance

301557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

640

Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?

Jul 4, 11:25 PMJul 5, 8:59 PM

30.59%chance

13831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Will "Cheap Labour Everywhere " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 18, 3:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.57%chance

4207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

970

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
UK Court Lets 138 Asylum Seekers Remain at Epping Hotel
Authors
6
3 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Rwanda
US Foreign Policy
Politics
Rwanda Takes First U.S. Deportees Under Trump Immigration Deal
Authors
16
3 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Labour Grandees Clash Over ECHR Exit as Asylum Hotel Battle Escalates
Authors
13
3 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Energy
Sustainability
UK Power Bills Climb Again as Surging Costs Jeopardise Net-Zero Goal
Authors
15
3 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Starmer Removes Top Aide Nin Pandit as No. 10 Shake-Up Widens
Authors
5
3 months ago
Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Britain
Argentina
Politics
Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey
Authors
7
3 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Elon Musk Endorses Advance UK, Dismisses Farage as “Weak Sauce”
Authors
4
3 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Britain
Economics
Business
UK Pubs and Restaurants Lose Nearly 90,000 Jobs Since Labour’s October Budget Including National Insurance and Minimum Wage Hikes
Authors
11
3 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Britain
US Legislation
US Domestic Policy
Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer Back Detention, Deportation as UK Faces Rising Illegal Boat Arrivals; US Advances Expedited Removal Act
Authors
9
3 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Britain
Politics
Culture
Lucy Connolly Released After Nine Months of 31-Month Sentence, Claims Political Prisoner Under Keir Starmer Over Racist Tweet
Authors
18
4 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Britain
Politics
Culture
‘Operation Raise the Colours’ Sparks Row Over St George’s Cross Displays
Authors
10
4 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch
Authors
7
4 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
UK Asylum Claims Reach Record 111,000 in Year to June
Authors
8
4 months ago
Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Canada
Business
World
Air Canada Ends Four-Day Cabin-Crew Strike With Tentative Pay Deal
Authors
69
4 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Britain
Economics
Politics
Kinnock Presses Wealth Tax to Pay for End of Two-Child Benefit Cap
Authors
4
4 months ago
Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
Kenya
Politics
World
President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy
Authors
3
4 months ago

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