Lens News

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

489136

OptionProbability

Hal Finney

Paul Le Roux

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Adam Back

Dorian Nakamoto

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMApr 6, 6:59 AM

674192

OptionProbability

Len Sassaman

Hal Finney

Other

Peter Todd

Nick Szabo

An Intelligence Agency

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Adam Back

[INVALID]

Dorian Nakamoto

Vitalik Buterin

Craig Wright

Wei Dai

Sinclair Chen

Satoshi Nakamoto

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

Will any US state shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025?

Sep 7, 5:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.9%chance

311378

OptionVotes

YES

1017

978

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

Dec 22, 5:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.69%chance

311200

OptionVotes

YES

1338

782

Solar gravitational lens mission launched by 2035?

Dec 8, 10:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.98%chance

14376

OptionVotes

YES

1169

927

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12236

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Multiple People

Craig Wright

Solar gravitational lens at 542 AU to image exoplanets by EOY 2055?

Mar 31, 5:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.98%chance

3103

OptionVotes

YES

224

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

162

How unusable will my Lenovo laptop be by EOY 2025?

Jun 12, 2:13 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

Will "Why Have Sentence Lengths Decreased?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 23, 7:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.61%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

1007

958

Which of these NIAC Phase III missions will be executed before 2100?

Sep 9, 4:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

418

OptionProbability

Robotic Technologies Enabling the Exploration of Lunar Pits

Direct Multipixel Imaging and Spectroscopy of an Exoplanet with a Solar Gravitational Lens Mission

Diffractive Solar Sailing

Cube-Sat Space Flight Test of a Neutrino Detector

Mini Bee Prototype to Demonstrate the Apis Mission Architecture and Optical Mining Technology

None of the above

LENNY - $LEN

Jun 17, 8:32 PM

OptionProbability

YES

100

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Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Will any US state shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025?

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

Solar gravitational lens mission launched by 2035?

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Solar gravitational lens at 542 AU to image exoplanets by EOY 2055?

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

How unusable will my Lenovo laptop be by EOY 2025?

Will "Why Have Sentence Lengths Decreased?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Which of these NIAC Phase III missions will be executed before 2100?

LENNY - $LEN

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