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President Ruto and Raila Lead UDA-ODM Meeting as MPs Face Extortion Claims; Anti-Graft Team Suspended, Mutai Impeachment Trial Set, Gachagua Returns

1 day ago

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56.81%chance

178213505

OptionVotes

YES

5993

3136

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.39%chance

86134411

OptionVotes

YES

108928

17670

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.07%chance

150128231

OptionVotes

YES

18325

7936

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

15%chance

13758456

OptionVotes

YES

2333

1409

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.14%chance

6115112

OptionVotes

YES

9979

9757

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

YES

10081

9577

Will Mattel stock (MAT) be above 25 USD on October 1st 2025?

Feb 20, 8:58 AMOct 2, 6:59 AM

4%chance

6423

OptionVotes

YES

490

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Jul 30, 7:24 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

1356

OptionProbability

Pineo & Loeb

Funk Hunters

Mat the Allen

Skiitour

ill.gates

Lazy Syrup Orchestra

Longwalkshortdock

Father Funk

A.Skillz

Excision

Moontricks

Clozee

Rezz

Broken Future

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Harrison Schmitt

James A. Lovell Jr.

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Buzz Aldrin

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.33%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

167

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

Jul 26, 3:26 AMJun 1, 3:20 AM

OptionProbability

Nothing

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Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Will Mattel stock (MAT) be above 25 USD on October 1st 2025?

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

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Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)