MAT News

President Ruto and Raila Lead UDA-ODM Meeting as MPs Face Extortion Claims; Anti-Graft Team Suspended, Mutai Impeachment Trial Set, Gachagua Returns

1 year ago

Kenya High Court Suspends President Ruto’s Multi-Agency Anti-Corruption Team Amid Petition by Four Activists and MPs Demand Evidence

1 year ago

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

YES

155442

22908

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38%chance

3322102

OptionVotes

YES

7072

3331

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.76%chance

4114764

OptionVotes

YES

14172

7056

Real U.S. spending on math R&D at higher-education institutions decrease by at least 25% by EOY 2028

Oct 3, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.15%chance

510552

OptionVotes

YES

20550

4866

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.09%chance

179858

OptionVotes

YES

13202

6235

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

42.64%chance

233700

OptionVotes

YES

4493

3587

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

15.25%chance

15844

OptionVotes

YES

236

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9248

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Harrison Schmitt

Buzz Aldrin

James A. Lovell Jr.

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.91%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

1084

987

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.29%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

192

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

200

did you or anyone in your household have The Mat as a kid?

Oct 6, 10:16 PM

260

Latest stories

Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
Kenya
Law
Politics
Kenya High Court Suspends President Ruto’s Multi-Agency Anti-Corruption Team Amid Petition by Four Activists and MPs Demand Evidence
Authors
3
1 year ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Kenya
Politics
World
President Ruto and Raila Lead UDA-ODM Meeting as MPs Face Extortion Claims; Anti-Graft Team Suspended, Mutai Impeachment Trial Set, Gachagua Returns
Authors
4
1 year ago

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Real U.S. spending on math R&D at higher-education institutions decrease by at least 25% by EOY 2028

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

did you or anyone in your household have The Mat as a kid?

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Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)