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Top stories

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

Authors

3

3 months ago

Prediction markets for ML

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

25%chance

2720620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

700

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

Jun 20, 6:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

328618

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

2026-01-01

Later than that/never

2025-01-01

86

86

78

75

14

0

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

19.73%chance

807546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

320

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

83.04%chance

411582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

977

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

59.72%chance

31917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

822

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

65.12%chance

28746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

763

Will "You should go to ML conferences" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 7:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.93%chance

3550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

932

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

Nov 7, 9:09 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

8334

OptionProbability

>4x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

34

20

18

15

12

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

72

72

50

29

22

1

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Nov 7, 9:06 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

5135

OptionProbability

>8x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

4-8x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

29

24

18

11

11

8

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Will a standardized category theory language for ML models emerge by end of 2025?

Apr 9, 12:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3.12%chance

622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

65

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
India
Politics
World
Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy
Authors
3
3 months ago

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