ML News

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

1 year ago

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

YES

1081

564

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

Jun 20, 6:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

328618

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

2026-01-01

Later than that/never

2025-01-01

Will ML-KEM-768 break before X25519?

Apr 11, 12:22 AMJan 1, 1:21 AM

16.39%chance

103066

OptionVotes

YES

8919

5057

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

81.88%chance

421608

OptionVotes

YES

991

933

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

56.48%chance

31967

OptionVotes

YES

1131

753

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

1039

981

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will "The ML ontology and the alignment ontology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 2:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.95%chance

3103

OptionVotes

YES

1004

999

Will a quantum/classical algorithm breaking ML-KEM-768 be found before 2050?

May 9, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.88%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

1023

913

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

101

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats me in a Bo5 set?

Feb 24, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
India
Politics
World
Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for ML

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Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

Will ML-KEM-768 break before X25519?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will "The ML ontology and the alignment ontology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will a quantum/classical algorithm breaking ML-KEM-768 be found before 2050?

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats me in a Bo5 set?

Latest stories

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