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Top stories

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

Authors

3

7 months ago

Prediction markets for ML

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

29.46%chance

3021098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

582

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

Jun 20, 6:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

328618

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

2026-01-01

Later than that/never

2025-01-01

86

86

78

75

14

0

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

83.04%chance

411582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

977

Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?

Jun 25, 7:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

201368

OptionProbability

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Kaiming He

48

18

15

11

9

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

56.48%chance

31967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

753

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

24

14

14

14

14

9

9

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

72

72

50

29

22

1

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Nov 7, 9:06 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

5135

OptionProbability

>8x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

4-8x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

29

24

18

11

11

8

Will "The ML ontology and the alignment ontology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 2:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.95%chance

3103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

999

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats the Phillip AI in a Bo5 set?

Feb 24, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats me in a Bo5 set?

Feb 24, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
India
Politics
World
Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy
Authors
3
7 months ago

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