ML News

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

1 year ago

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

53.18%chance

3422942

OptionVotes

YES

1292

258

Will ML-KEM-768 break before X25519?

Apr 11, 12:22 AMJan 1, 1:21 AM

16.45%chance

113071

OptionVotes

YES

8893

5062

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

81.88%chance

421608

OptionVotes

YES

991

933

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

54.89%chance

32992

OptionVotes

YES

1156

721

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

1039

981

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

Nov 7, 9:09 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

8334

OptionProbability

>4x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Nov 7, 9:06 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

5135

OptionProbability

>8x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

4-8x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

Will "The ML ontology and the alignment ontology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 2:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.95%chance

3103

OptionVotes

YES

1004

999

Will a quantum/classical algorithm breaking ML-KEM-768 be found before 2050?

May 9, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.88%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

1023

913

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats me in a Bo5 set?

Feb 24, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
India
Politics
World
Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for ML

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Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Will ML-KEM-768 break before X25519?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Will "The ML ontology and the alignment ontology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will a quantum/classical algorithm breaking ML-KEM-768 be found before 2050?

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats me in a Bo5 set?

Latest stories

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