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Prediction markets for ML

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

37.29%chance

2515523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

437

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

29.43%chance

806996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

448

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

83.04%chance

411582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

977

Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?

Jun 25, 7:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

191318

OptionProbability

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Kaiming He

48

17

14

11

10

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

59.72%chance

31917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

822

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

65.12%chance

28746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

763

Will "You should go to ML conferences" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 7:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.93%chance

3550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

932

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

Nov 7, 9:09 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

8334

OptionProbability

>4x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

34

20

18

15

12

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

72

72

50

29

22

1

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Nov 7, 9:06 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

5135

OptionProbability

>8x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

4-8x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

29

24

18

11

11

8

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

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