OptionProbability
Department of Education
Federal Statistical Agencies
Transportation Security Administration (TSA)
National Weather Service
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Internal Revenue Service
Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
National Institutes of Health
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
National Park Service (NPS)
Small Business Administration
Federal Bureau of Investigations
Freddie Mac
Ginnie Mae
Fannie Mae
The Supreme Court
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
US Postal Service
Amtrak
100
35
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
14
13
12
11
9
7
4
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
106
94
1 million Optimus bots delivered
20 million Tesla vehicles delivered
10 million active FSD subscriptions
$50 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
$80 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
$130 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
At least 6 milestones achieved by 2035
Fewer than 6 milestones achieved by 2035
$210 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
1 million Robotaxis in commercial operations
$300 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
Tesla ceases operations before 2035
$400 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
All 12 milestones achieved by 2035
69
66
50
38
34
24
