OptionProbability
Department of Education
Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Park Service (NPS)
Freddie Mac
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco
Fannie Mae
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
Small Business Administration
Federal Statistical Agencies
Ginnie Mae
Federal Bureau of Investigations
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Transportation Security Administration (TSA)
National Weather Service
Internal Revenue Service
National Institutes of Health
The Supreme Court
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
US Postal Service
Amtrak
100
14
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
106
94
263
38
1 million Optimus bots delivered
20 million Tesla vehicles delivered
10 million active FSD subscriptions
$50 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
$80 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
$130 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
At least 6 milestones achieved by 2035
Fewer than 6 milestones achieved by 2035
$210 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
1 million Robotaxis in commercial operations
$300 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
Tesla ceases operations before 2035
$400 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
All 12 milestones achieved by 2035
69
66
50
34
24
17
