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SDNY Judges Keep Jay Clayton as Acting U.S. Attorney

9 months ago

How will Trump leave office?

Mar 13, 8:47 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

636306642

OptionProbability

At the end of his term in 2029.

He will die before the end of his term.

He will be impeached, tried in the Senate, and removed before the end of his term.

He will resign (impeached or not) before the end of his term.

The 22nd Amendment will not be repealed, but he will remain in power through unconstitutional means after January 21, 2029

He will be removed by a 25th Amendment action before the end of his term.

Other

The 22nd Amendment will be repealed and he will win re-election to a third term.

He will be overthrown in a violent coup (military or otherwise) and forced out of office. (If this happens, related answers that may occur like death and resignation will resolve NO).

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Jan 29, 5:52 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

53145113

OptionProbability

Never.

2027

2028

2025

2026

2029

Sometime after 2029

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

1.28%chance

6396543

OptionVotes

YES

90079

6480

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

Jun 2, 11:07 PMJan 20, 11:44 PM

14.96%chance

24986065

OptionVotes

YES

2386

420

When will Trump leave office as President?

Nov 8, 2:56 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3933632

OptionProbability

2029 or later

2027

2026

2028

2025

Will Trump get a third term in office?

Jan 21, 7:45 PMJan 29, 5:59 AM

4.89%chance

8226876

OptionVotes

YES

4410

227

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Jul 11, 5:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.5%chance

7320876

OptionVotes

YES

4020

2129

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

27.21%chance

10118004

OptionVotes

YES

2478

1665

Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?

Feb 4, 5:35 PMAug 2, 3:59 AM

5.72%chance

1817218

OptionVotes

YES

15095

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.67%chance

4812232

OptionVotes

YES

2940

1447

Will the next president die while in office?

Aug 2, 5:44 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

365245

OptionVotes

YES

1417

894

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Sep 28, 8:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.74%chance

502900

OptionVotes

YES

2431

1289

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
US Gov Appointments
New York
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SDNY Judges Keep Jay Clayton as Acting U.S. Attorney
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9 months ago

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Prediction markets for Office

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Prediction markets for Office

How will Trump leave office?

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

When will Trump leave office as President?

Will Trump get a third term in office?

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will the next president die while in office?

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Latest stories

Join our channels

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