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Top stories

France’s Lombard Sticks to 5.4% Deficit Goal, Downplays IMF Risk

France’s Lombard Sticks to 5.4% Deficit Goal, Downplays IMF Risk

Authors

16

10 months ago

Kenya Marks 15 Years of 2010 Charter Amid Fresh Calls to Close Gender Gap

Kenya Marks 15 Years of 2010 Charter Amid Fresh Calls to Close Gender Gap

Authors

3

10 months ago

Kenya Treasury Defies Parliament, Insists on E-Procurement as Sh250bn Projects Stall

Kenya Treasury Defies Parliament, Insists on E-Procurement as Sh250bn Projects Stall

Authors

3

10 months ago

Gloria Orwoba Blocked From Parliament as Kenya Moja Demands Health CS Aden Duale’s Resignation Over SHA ICT System

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4

10 months ago

Mélenchon Sets 23 Sept. Bid to Impeach Macron

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5

10 months ago

Kenya High Court Suspends President Ruto’s Multi-Agency Anti-Corruption Team Amid Petition by Four Activists and MPs Demand Evidence

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3

10 months ago

Group Captain Shubhanshu Shukla of Axiom-4 Meets PM Modi, President; Modi Highlights National Space Day, Chandrayaan-3, Amid Parliament Debate on 130th Amendment Bill

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3

10 months ago

Home Minister Amit Shah Introduces Three Bills Amid Opposition Protests in Least Productive 2025 Monsoon Session

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10 months ago

Prediction markets for Parliament

Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?

Jul 21, 1:09 PMAug 16, 10:59 PM

3%chance

2132109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5686

176

Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?

Jun 20, 3:57 AMOct 15, 6:59 AM

2.91%chance

1118071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2288

911

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

37.37%chance

273173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

728

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will a new party be elected to NZ Parliament by 2030?

Nov 6, 10:25 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

24.2%chance

232074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

857

Will the European Parliament pass a no-confidence vote against the Commission during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 3:12 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

10.19%chance

52021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2969

337

How many seats will Restore Britain or its successor have in Parliament following the next UK general election?

Apr 23, 5:17 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

91637

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 1

Above 2

Above 5

Above 10

Above 20

Above 50

Above 100

Above 200

Above 326

39

28

6

4

3

3

3

1

1

1

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.2%chance

101587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

753

Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.01%chance

17902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

666

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.3%chance

21475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

908

When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM

3175

OptionProbability

No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves

Before 1 July 2026

July to December 2026

During 2027

2028 or later

27

18

18

18

18

Will Polish parliament raise the retirement age before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.26%chance

10157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

989

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