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Top stories

Idaho Killer Kohberger Seeks Prison Wing Transfer After Sex Harassment Claims

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for People

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.28%chance

75107935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47945

2368

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.77%chance

11657018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8894

3701

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.47%chance

5552571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23161

4623

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.74%chance

13644436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12658

10372

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.36%chance

2339329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43888

3793

Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025

Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.94%chance

12933141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23329

4872

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Jun 2, 8:04 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1423161

OptionProbability

>= 100

>= 200

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

95

93

89

79

60

27

12

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

May 31, 4:36 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1122990

OptionProbability

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

>= 3400

>= 5500

>= 8900

75

63

51

39

21

11

8

4

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?

Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

225930

OptionProbability

0.001M-0.1M

>1000M but not all of humanity

0.1M-10M

10M-1000M

Other

All of humanity

41

14

13

12

11

9

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

Latest stories

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Crime
Culture
United States
Idaho Killer Kohberger Seeks Prison Wing Transfer After Sex Harassment Claims
Authors
5
4 months ago

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