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Prediction markets for People
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM
89.45%chance
159141024
OptionVotes
4067
903
[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?
Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
67.97%chance
11857524
OptionVotes
9296
3502
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.18%chance
13746687
OptionVotes
13320
9842
OptionProbability
95
93
89
79
60
21
10
OptionProbability
75
63
51
39
21
11
8
4
OptionProbability
35
34
9
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM
44%chance
568669
OptionVotes
1047
854
In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
225930
OptionProbability
41
14
13
12
11
9
Will Trump incarcerate or institutionalize trans people just for being trans?
Nov 18, 3:11 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
58.9%chance
405227
OptionVotes
1911
1120
Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?
Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM
32.74%chance
122181
OptionVotes
5594
2925
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.45%chance
365
OptionVotes
4047
3968
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25
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