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Prediction markets for Pew Research

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

58.35%chance

441723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

786

Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?

Aug 28, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.12%chance

241393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

903

More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026

Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

42.26%chance

221322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

856

By what year will 30% of Republicans say global climate change is a major threat to the US?

Mar 4, 1:55 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

9313

OptionProbability

not by 2030

by 2030

by 2028

by 2026

72

28

23

15

Will Pew Research’s moving average for, “Public Trust in Government”, fall below 11 percent in 2025?

Dec 18, 4:47 AMNov 2, 3:59 AM

17.5%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

107

Will women make up at least 35% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Feb 16, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.66%chance

6141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

87

Will the share of US adults saying gender is determined by sex at birth be reported by Pew to have grown since 2022?

Feb 9, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.21%chance

8114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

120

In 2025-26, what percentage of US Republicans will prioritize increased security along the US-Mexico border?

Feb 12, 2:05 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

71.97%chance

598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

96

Conditional on Nevada voting No on Question 3 in 2024, what will turnout be in their next primary elections?

Dec 21, 7:44 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

32.2%chance

497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

102

Will women make up at least 30% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Feb 16, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.06%chance

290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

32

Will pet ownership decline in the US from 2023 to 2025-2026?

May 3, 12:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.65%chance

366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

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