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Prediction markets for Pew Research
Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
31%chance
1819062
OptionVotes
1492
670
Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
19.29%chance
555029
OptionVotes
2015
243
More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026
Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM
31.55%chance
303232
OptionVotes
1473
679
Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?
Aug 28, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.66%chance
241443
OptionVotes
1414
896
Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?
May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.09%chance
4790
OptionVotes
1691
591
By what year will 30% of Republicans say global climate change is a major threat to the US?
Mar 4, 1:55 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM
9513
OptionProbability
72
28
17
7
Will pet ownership decline in the US from 2023 to 2025-2026?
May 3, 12:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.71%chance
4228
OptionVotes
324
31
Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?
Sep 9, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10154
OptionProbability
62
37
In 2025-26, what percentage of US Republicans will prioritize increased security along the US-Mexico border?
Feb 12, 2:05 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM
71.97%chance
598
OptionVotes
125
96
Conditional on Nevada voting No on Question 3 in 2024, what will turnout be in their next primary elections?
Dec 21, 7:44 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
32.2%chance
497
OptionVotes
105
102
In 2025-26, what percentage of US Democrats will prioritize increased security along the US-Mexico border?
Feb 12, 2:03 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM
22.48%chance
355
OptionVotes
145
63
If a Democrat wins the Presidency while losing the popular vote, will Republicans turn against the Electoral College?
Feb 21, 3:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.33%chance
646
OptionVotes
157
107
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