Pew Research Center News

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

58.35%chance

441723

OptionVotes

YES

1113

786

Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?

Aug 28, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.12%chance

241393

OptionVotes

YES

1364

903

By what year will 30% of Republicans say global climate change is a major threat to the US?

Mar 4, 1:55 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

9313

OptionProbability

not by 2030

by 2030

by 2028

by 2026

Large anti-AI protest in a Western country by EOY2025?

Jun 6, 12:34 PMDec 31, 1:32 PM

15%chance

7163

OptionVotes

YES

238

Will women make up at least 35% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Feb 16, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.66%chance

6141

OptionVotes

YES

250

Will the share of US adults saying gender is determined by sex at birth be reported by Pew to have grown since 2022?

Feb 9, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.21%chance

8114

OptionVotes

YES

215

120

In 2025-26, what percentage of US Republicans will prioritize increased security along the US-Mexico border?

Feb 12, 2:05 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

71.97%chance

598

OptionVotes

YES

125

Conditional on Nevada voting No on Question 3 in 2024, what will turnout be in their next primary elections?

Dec 21, 7:44 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

32.2%chance

497

OptionVotes

YES

105

102

Will women make up at least 30% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Feb 16, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.06%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

142

Will pet ownership decline in the US from 2023 to 2025-2026?

May 3, 12:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.65%chance

366

OptionVotes

YES

147

In 2025-26, what percentage of US Democrats will prioritize increased security along the US-Mexico border?

Feb 12, 2:03 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

22.48%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

145

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Prediction markets for Pew Research Center

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Prediction markets for Pew Research Center

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?

By what year will 30% of Republicans say global climate change is a major threat to the US?

Large anti-AI protest in a Western country by EOY2025?

Will women make up at least 35% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Will the share of US adults saying gender is determined by sex at birth be reported by Pew to have grown since 2022?

In 2025-26, what percentage of US Republicans will prioritize increased security along the US-Mexico border?

Conditional on Nevada voting No on Question 3 in 2024, what will turnout be in their next primary elections?

Will women make up at least 30% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Will pet ownership decline in the US from 2023 to 2025-2026?

In 2025-26, what percentage of US Democrats will prioritize increased security along the US-Mexico border?

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