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Prediction markets for Pew
Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
26.43%chance
1518900
OptionVotes
1669
599
Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
56.73%chance
441748
OptionVotes
1138
752
More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026
Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM
35%chance
221572
OptionVotes
1363
734
At the beginning of 2027, will Americans like Sam Altman more than they like Mark Zuckerberg?
Apr 4, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57.95%chance
331566
OptionVotes
1057
876
Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?
Aug 28, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.66%chance
241443
OptionVotes
1414
896
By what year will 30% of Republicans say global climate change is a major threat to the US?
Mar 4, 1:55 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM
9363
OptionProbability
72
28
23
11
OptionProbability
115
101
Will belief in sex/gender distinction reach 2022 levels again before 2030?
Feb 23, 2:47 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM
65.99%chance
6210
OptionVotes
379
243
OptionVotes
129
77
Large anti-AI protest in a Western country by EOY2025?
Jun 6, 12:34 PMDec 31, 1:32 PM
11.45%chance
8203
OptionVotes
278
36
OptionProbability
46
22
16
12
5
Will the trend towards economic populism in the GOP reverse?
Apr 9, 12:51 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
42.85%chance
689
OptionVotes
170
131
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