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Prediction markets for Political Parties

Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

Jun 5, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.37%chance

999671235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13616

7835

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37%chance

305371931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

9431715

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

61

38

1

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

36.94%chance

8930537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1527

549

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

161987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

871

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

61804

OptionProbability

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

GroenLinks–PvdA

JA21

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Union (CU)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

New Social Contract (NSC)

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Socialist Party (SP)

Party for Freedom (PVV)

Denk

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

81

80

69

46

40

40

40

40

25

18

18

17

12

12

4

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11%chance

10748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

946

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2025?

Jun 7, 4:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.72%chance

5656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1502

666

Both US political parties will seem less extreme by 2025

Jan 11, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.33%chance

24616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

925

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.5%chance

20465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

911

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.86%chance

18334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

980

Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?

Aug 7, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.76%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

976

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