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Prediction markets for Political Parties
OptionProbability
67
32
1
Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?
Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM
13.95%chance
15350635
OptionVotes
2488
248
By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
3.38%chance
172861
OptionVotes
3546
798
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
14.55%chance
172445
OptionVotes
1408
895
Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?
Dec 23, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.23%chance
181872
OptionVotes
1840
771
Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?
Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
23.64%chance
21561
OptionVotes
1189
926
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
21.52%chance
21478
OptionVotes
1173
911
OptionProbability
54
44
2
Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?
Aug 7, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.76%chance
12287
OptionVotes
1032
976
Which EU country will disqualify a major presidential candidate or a major political party next?
Mar 31, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13153
OptionProbability
46
16
11
7
7
6
6
Which political party will the PM be from when a building taller than the Shard is built in the UK?
Sep 8, 11:07 PMSep 8, 11:07 PM
7144
OptionProbability
30
30
27
8
6
How much does firearm control and 2A rhetoric switch political parties?
Mar 4, 3:11 AMNov 2, 3:10 AM
30.76%chance
282
OptionVotes
112
63