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Prediction markets for Roma
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
45.88%chance
34862801596
OptionVotes
11103
8478
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
89%chance
530230132
OptionVotes
12091
5829
In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
46.65%chance
24471955
OptionVotes
2762
526
OptionProbability
32
25
12
5
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
61
15
12
5
3
3
Will the Roman Catholic Church permit the ordination of female priests by 2050?
Apr 27, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.33%chance
497835
OptionVotes
1829
1678
Will Roman Shogdzhiev become the youngest chess Grandmaster ever?
Oct 13, 1:47 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM
57.13%chance
112585
OptionVotes
1154
866
Roman Catholic Church decides damnation is not eternal (market ends 2040)
Jul 29, 11:39 PMAug 6, 3:59 AM
28.67%chance
12826
OptionVotes
1577
634
Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?
Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
30.52%chance
5770
OptionVotes
1509
663
Will the Roman Empire make a comeback until EOY 4000?
Feb 9, 12:55 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
26.15%chance
20583
OptionVotes
1263
877
Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?
Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM
45.8%chance
5122
OptionVotes
1093
924
Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 3, 2:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000