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Prediction markets for Safety

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?

Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.79%chance

387401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11726

7606

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

75.64%chance

392362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

567

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.51%chance

291797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

985

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40.77%chance

201028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

418

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

61.3%chance

11972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

952

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.59%chance

28910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

676

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

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