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Prediction markets for safety
Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?
Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.91%chance
3026097
OptionVotes
31979
3127
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.57%chance
5212004
OptionVotes
8319
3970
I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.54%chance
777161
OptionVotes
2241
1226
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
79.24%chance
554762
OptionVotes
1954
512
Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
79%chance
432588
OptionVotes
1939
516
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
Mar 7, 1:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26.74%chance
301897
OptionVotes
1086
946
Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?
Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
65.19%chance
131082
OptionVotes
1178
888
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
32.56%chance
21893
OptionVotes
1061
803
Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?
Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM
52.83%chance
5546
OptionVotes
1058
945
WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?
May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM
73.57%chance
12508
OptionVotes
1234
1021
By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
72.73%chance
16315
OptionVotes
1078
959
Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?
Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM
68.84%chance
10141
OptionVotes
1045
974