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Prediction markets for safety
Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)
Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.68%chance
2236231
OptionVotes
34661
2885
If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?
Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.47%chance
5131182
OptionVotes
23110
6062
I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.49%chance
716636
OptionVotes
1742
1335
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
78.52%chance
534606
OptionVotes
1912
523
OptionVotes
1592
628
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.31%chance
163092
OptionVotes
3237
737
Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
78.35%chance
422502
OptionVotes
1902
526
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?
Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
10%chance
342460
OptionVotes
2784
176
Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?
Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
10.47%chance
232028
OptionVotes
2422
120
Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?
Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
65.19%chance
131082
OptionVotes
1178
888
By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
72.73%chance
16315
OptionVotes
1078
959
Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?
Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM
68.84%chance
10141
OptionVotes
1045
974