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Prediction markets for Smart
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
Aug 7, 9:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6.66%chance
28075919
OptionVotes
3308
813
Will Apple announce a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025?
May 9, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.85%chance
3213616
OptionVotes
8794
307
Will Apple release a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025?
May 9, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.75%chance
11210221
OptionVotes
8218
564
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?
Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM
88.27%chance
384317
OptionVotes
2134
661
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?
Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM
85.66%chance
434022
OptionVotes
3633
1265
Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)
Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
82.39%chance
473852
OptionVotes
2174
415
OptionVotes
2532
689
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
Feb 20, 11:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
22.44%chance
482266
OptionVotes
1902
435
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
77.02%chance
302249
OptionVotes
1140
912
OptionVotes
1448
632
Will we be able to print a smart humanoid bot at home by 2030?
Jul 12, 4:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.95%chance
242014
OptionVotes
1832
546
Will "Most smart and skilled people are outside of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 16, 2:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.99%chance
3305
OptionVotes
1269
962
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