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Prediction markets for The Coalition
Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?
Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
21.49%chance
275580
OptionVotes
1330
878
Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?
Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM
104311
OptionProbability
66
65
64
52
42
37
36
36
32
31
23
16
9
4
2
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14.74%chance
192320
OptionVotes
2405
416
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
Feb 24, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
242158
OptionProbability
32
10
9
8
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
Which Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?
Aug 16, 2:45 PMMar 7, 9:59 PM
41697
OptionProbability
36
27
25
25
13
12
12
12
4
Will a coalition of forces from Arab countries attack Israel before the end of Israel's current campaign in Gaza?
Nov 4, 10:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6.1%chance
271437
OptionVotes
1652
917
How many seats will Milei's La Libertad Avanza coalition gain in Argentina's 2025 elections to the Chamber of Deputies?
Dec 10, 10:50 PMDec 21, 5:59 AM
8645
OptionProbability
27
25
24
18
16
13
9
8
7
6
6
4
OptionVotes
246
80
Will the next governing coalition of the Netherlands dissolve before its term is over if the PVV is part of it?
Jan 23, 7:27 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
95.02%chance
6344
OptionVotes
312
22
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM
70%chance
6233
OptionVotes
153
65
Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?
Mar 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
11101
OptionProbability
19
13
11
10
9
9
7
6
6
3
3
3
Will "The Minority Coalition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jan 19, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
8.07%chance
170
OptionVotes
170
92
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