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Top stories

Xbox’s ‘Gears of War’ Franchise Debuts on PlayStation With Reloaded Remaster

Xbox’s ‘Gears of War’ Franchise Debuts on PlayStation With Reloaded Remaster

Authors

9

8 months ago

Prediction markets for The Coalition

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.71%chance

316725

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

493

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.66%chance

275814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3058

327

Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?

Feb 24, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

302366

OptionProbability

CDU/CSU + SPD

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens

CDU/CSU + AfD

Other

SPD + Greens + Left

CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP

CDU/CSU + Greens

No coalition before 2030

SPD + Greens + FDP

SPD + Greens

CDU/CSU + FDP

CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens + FDP

AfD alone

50

22

9

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Which Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?

Aug 16, 2:45 PMMar 7, 9:59 PM

42326

OptionProbability

Estonian Reform Party (RE)

Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE)

Fatherland (I)

Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK)

The Right (PP)

Estonia 200 (E200)

Social Democratic Party (SDE)

Estonian Centre Party (KE)

Estonian Greens (EER)

36

31

27

27

27

27

25

25

7

Will an Arab party be in the next Israeli coalition?

Apr 24, 7:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.5%chance

8617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

80

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

12342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

60%chance

6314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?

Mar 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12117

OptionProbability

AfD + BSW

CDU + BSW + SPD

CDU + SPD

CDU + Left + BSW

Left + SPD + Greens

None by 2031

CDU + Left + SPD

CDU + SPD + Greens

AfD alone

Other

Left + BSW + SPD

AfD + CDU

18

14

11

9

9

8

7

6

6

5

3

3

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

50.62%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

988

Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 6:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Video Games
Culture
Xbox’s ‘Gears of War’ Franchise Debuts on PlayStation With Reloaded Remaster
Authors
9
8 months ago

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