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Prediction markets for The Coalition
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.21%chance
4411685
OptionVotes
2274
440
Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?
Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
4.16%chance
3611478
OptionVotes
4892
512
OptionVotes
246
80
Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
May 20, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33%chance
16603
OptionVotes
142
70
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
38.89%chance
21491
OptionVotes
125
80
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM
45.09%chance
6439
OptionVotes
110
91
Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?
Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM
61.44%chance
4360
OptionVotes
1262
792
If X happens in the Victorian state election, will the Coalition overtake One Nation in national polls in December 2026?
Oct 12, 6:58 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
1329
OptionProbability
59
53
53
40
40
30
30
Will the Coalition next split before the next election?
Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM
43.52%chance
6225
OptionVotes
136
56
Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 15, 6:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.32%chance
271
OptionVotes
1051
992
Which electoral coalitions will happen in the 2027 Polish parlimentary election?
Aug 15, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
120
OptionProbability
76
50
50
50
50
Which parties will be part of the ruling coalition after the 2027 Polish parlimentary election?
Jun 9, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
112
OptionProbability
69
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
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