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Prediction markets for The Coalition
Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?
Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
52.71%chance
316725
OptionVotes
1325
493
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9.66%chance
275814
OptionVotes
3058
327
Which Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?
Aug 16, 2:45 PMMar 7, 9:59 PM
42326
OptionProbability
36
31
27
27
27
27
25
25
7
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
Feb 24, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
282236
OptionProbability
29
19
15
8
6
5
4
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
246
80
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM
61.41%chance
6263
OptionVotes
126
79
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
15.39%chance
7228
OptionVotes
234
43
Who will win the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) leadership election?
Jan 24, 8:47 PMApr 12, 3:59 AM
2165
OptionProbability
88
5
4
4
Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM
79%chance
8124
OptionVotes
194
52
Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?
Mar 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
12117
OptionProbability
18
14
11
9
9
8
7
6
6
5
3
3
Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?
Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM
50.62%chance
3110
OptionVotes
1012
988
Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 15, 6:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.32%chance
271
OptionVotes
1051
992
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